Oil prices rise, supported by declining US inventories and tensions in Venezuela
Oil prices rose significantly in today's trading, driven by two main factors:
- US crude oil inventories fell more than expected.
- Continued market anticipation of geopolitical developments in Venezuela and their impact on global oil supply.
Details of the rise in oil prices
Crude futures jumped at the start of the session, with:
Brent crude rose 1.3% to $60.60 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $56.80 per barrel.
Surprise drop in US inventories
The immediate catalyst for this rise was the US Energy Information Administration's weekly report, which revealed:
Crude oil inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels last week.
This figure surprised the markets, as the prevailing expectation was for a decline of only 900,000 barrels, making it the largest weekly decline in inventories since late October.
Developments in Venezuela
In parallel with the inventory data, oil traders are closely following developments in Venezuela, especially after the announcement of new US measures targeting the Venezuelan oil sector, which include plans to take control of the sector and seize oil tankers.
However, although geopolitical risks are currently preventing a collapse in prices, the possibility of increased Venezuelan exports amid these developments has already negatively affected Canadian oil prices and threatens to add more barrels to a market already suffering from oversupply.
Outlook: Sideways trend and limited risks
Despite this rise, many observers point out that the oil market is still trading in a sideways range, as the risks of supply disruptions in the near term remain limited.
The market is currently focused on balancing supportive factors such as low inventories and geopolitical tensions with bearish factors such as concerns about oversupply and weak global demand in some regions.
Oil price volatility is expected to continue in the coming period, closely linked to global economic indicators, inventory reports, and any unexpected developments in key producing regions.
