Will the decline in U.S. interest rate expectations lead to a break above the 90,000 mark?

Bitcoin remained above the $86,000 level during Monday’s trading, benefiting from a decline in market expectations regarding U.S. interest rate hikes, following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that boosted investor appetite for high-risk assets.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose, touching the $87,000 level during the Asian session before stabilizing around $86,000 currently, signaling continued positive momentum despite pressures from a strong U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields.

U.S. Jobs Data Supports the Cryptocurrency Market

The main support for Bitcoin came from the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which showed a notable slowdown in job growth during September, prompting investors to reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

The weak data led to a decline in expectations for an interest rate hike at the upcoming October meeting, with the probability of a hike falling below 20% after having been much higher in recent weeks, which boosted demand for risky assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin typically benefits from lower expectations of monetary tightening, as higher interest rates reduce the liquidity available in the markets and diminish the appeal of high-risk assets.

The $90,000 level remains the main target for buyers

Analysts believe that Bitcoin is approaching key resistance levels that could determine its direction in the coming period, as the decline in bets on interest rate hikes could pave the way for a new uptrend, noting that the $90,000 level represents the most prominent psychological target for investors at the moment.

They added that breaking through this barrier could open the door to targeting the $97,000 level and then $100,000, which represents a key technical resistance zone that may see an increase in profit-taking.

The strength of the dollar remains a challenge for Bitcoin

Despite the cryptocurrency’s positive performance, the rise of the U.S. dollar continues to put pressure on global financial markets.

The dollar index approached its highest levels in about 18 months against a basket of major currencies, and while a rising dollar typically reduces the appeal of dollar-denominated assets—including gold and cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience recently thanks to sustained investor demand.

Liquidity Flows and ETFs Are Key to the Next Phase

Conversely, analysts believe that Bitcoin’s continued rise depends not only on diminished expectations of interest rate hikes but also requires an improvement in global liquidity conditions.

Weak economic data does not necessarily translate into a sustainable bullish catalyst unless it is accompanied by a decline in U.S. bond yields, a weakening dollar, and continued capital inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the continued presence of these factors collectively may provide the right environment to push the digital currency toward new price highs in the coming period.

Bitcoin Outlook

Bitcoin’s movements in the coming days remain heavily tied to expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, the performance of the dollar, and bond yields.

While the declining likelihood of an interest rate hike supports risk appetite, the cryptocurrency’s ability to break through the $90,000 level will remain the most important factor in confirming the continuation of the uptrend and targeting new record highs.