Oil rises on hopes of monetary easing and sanctions risks

Oil prices opened the week with a slight rise, as Brent crude rose to the level of 67.44 dollars per barrel, while WTI crude reached the level of 63.80 dollars per barrel.

This rise comes amid cautious optimism among investors, focused on two main factors: expectations of a cut in US interest rates and the risk of disruption of Russian oil supplies.

A boost from the Federal Reserve

The probability of a US interest rate cut is charging the oil scene with optimism, as the market now estimates a probability exceeding 85% that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the next September meeting.

This forecast has jumped from only about 72% before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole seminar, reflecting a significant shift in market expectations.

Geopolitical risks support prices

Besides the monetary factor, geopolitical tensions continue to provide fundamental support for oil prices.

On the one hand, the Russian-Ukrainian divergence continues without obvious positive indicators, which raises persistent concerns about the stability of supplies.

On the other hand, former US President Donald Trump's threats to impose secondary tariffs on India's oil imports from Russia add a new dimension of uncertainty.

The measure, if implemented, is scheduled to take effect on August 27, which could disrupt global crude oil flows.