Oil Continues to Decline Due to Supply and Trade Concerns

Oil prices fell slightly on Monday, affected by investor concerns about a global supply glut. Both benchmark crudes fell more than 2% last week, marking their third consecutive week of declines.

Mixed Economic Indicators

This performance coincided with the International Energy Agency's forecast of a global supply surplus expanding into 2026. Meanwhile, data from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics showed that economic growth slowed to its lowest level this year in the third quarter, raising questions about the Chinese economy's ability to rely on exports amid ongoing tensions with Washington.

International Warnings

In this context, the head of the World Trade Organization warned that the continued decoupling of the US and Chinese economies could reduce global economic output by 7% over the long term. This comes after the two countries recently announced additional tariffs on ships transporting goods between them, threatening to disrupt global supply chains.

Geopolitical Concerns

In addition, markets continue to monitor developments in the Ukraine situation after Trump and Putin agreed to hold a new summit. Meanwhile, Washington continues to pressure India and China to stop purchasing Russian oil, with Trump reiterating his warning that he would impose tariffs on India if it did not comply.

Supply Tightening Expectations

Analysts and trade sources expect Western pressure on Asian buyers to lead to a decline in India's imports of Russian oil starting in December, potentially pushing global prices further down.

Thus, economic and geopolitical factors interact to create a complex landscape for oil markets, as fears of recession and oversupply clash with political tensions that could reshape global flows in the coming months.