The main headlines were as follows:-
- After considering whether to raise interest rates, the arguments for their constancy were the strongest.
- The board of directors agreed that it is difficult to judge or exclude future changes in the cash interest rate.
- The data flow has increased the risks of inflation staying above the target for a longer period.
- The board of directors expressed limited tolerance for the return of inflation to the target after 2026.
- The bank considered the expectations of employees to be sound, provided a reliable path to return to the goal.
- The board noted that the forecast was based on a significantly higher course of the cash rate.
- An interest rate hike may be appropriate if the forecast proves to be overly optimistic.
- The risks surrounding the forecast were judged to be balanced, and most importantly, inflation expectations remained well fixed.
- The labor market proved to be tougher than expected, consumer demand was weaker.
- Financial conditions in Australia were judged to be restrictive. - The risks to global growth have become more balanced, and the forecasts for the US and China have been adjusted upwards.
It seems that the Australian Reserve is in no hurry to take any major steps regarding monetary policy settings this year, and therefore cuts in Australian interest rates in 2024 are unlikely.
