Gold slips slightly in anticipation of U.S. data

Gold prices fell slightly on Monday, weighed down by a stronger dollar, as investors look ahead to this week's U.S. economic data, which is expected to provide crucial clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

The yellow metal fell 1% to $4050 per ounce, before rebounding to near $4080.

This performance comes as the market awaits a series of economic reports, most notably the September non-farm payrolls report, which will be the focus of market participants looking for clues about the health of the U.S. economy.

Fears of economic uncertainty

Despite the end of the government shutdown, there is still uncertainty about the full economic picture, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis announcing that it is working on updating the release schedule for data affected by the shutdown.

Also, hawkish comments from Fed officials are putting additional pressure on gold.

Changing interest rate expectations

Traders currently expect the likelihood of a rate cut next month to fall to 46%, down from 50% last week.

The shift reflects increasing conservatism among Fed policymakers, driven by inflation concerns and signs of a stable labor market.

Exceptional Gold Performance in 2025

Gold, considered a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty, has been performing exceptionally well this year with prices jumping 55%, on track for the strongest annual gain since 1979.

This performance is supported by strong buying from central banks and continued demand from investors seeking to hedge against rising financial and geopolitical risks.

Gold is an asset that performs well in a low interest rate environment, making it an important indicator of market expectations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global economic conditions.