The next step for major central banks in 2025: market forecasts and schedule of meetings.
As 2025 approaches, questions are emerging about the upcoming decisions of major central banks and their impact on the global economy.
The markets offer various prospects regarding the first meetings of these banks in the new year, reflecting a state of anticipation and caution towards future monetary policies.
The first schedule of meetings and forecasts:
Fed: its meeting will be held on January 29, where forecasts indicate a 91% probability of not changing interest rates, against a 9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
ECB: it meets on January 30, amid expectations of a 99% chance of cutting interest by 25 basis points, while the probability of keeping interest unchanged is 1%.
The Bank of Japan will hold its meeting on January 24, with a 54% probability of not changing interest rates, compared to 46% to raise them by 25 basis points.
The Bank of England: meets on February 6, where forecasts indicate a 59% probability of no change and 41% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
The Swiss National Bank: its meeting will be held on March 20, with a probability of 78% to cut interest by 25 basis points, and 22% to reduce it by 50 basis points.
The Bank of Canada meets on January 29, with a 63% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and 37% for no change.
Reserve Bank of Australia: holds its meeting on February 18, with expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut and no change of 50% each.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand: meets on February 19, where forecasts indicate a 59% probability of cutting interest by 50 basis points, and 41% to reduce it by 25 basis points.
Interest rate forecasts for the next 12 months:
Federal Reserve: expected decrease of 36 basis points.
ECB: an expected decrease of 111 basis points.
Bank of Japan: expected rise of 45 basis points.
Bank of England: expected reduction by 55 basis points.
Swiss National Bank: an expected decrease of 53 basis points.
Bank of Canada: expected decrease of 54 basis points.
Reserve Bank of Australia: expected decrease of 74 basis points.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand: expected decrease of 112 basis points.
These forecasts remain subject to change, especially in unstable economic conditions.
The performance in 2024 suggests that expectations may vary significantly as the months go by, as happened with the Fed last year, where the market went from expecting six cuts to only two or three, ending the year with three actual cuts, one of which by 50 basis points in September.
