Jobs & Growth Put the Dollar in the Spotlight
Markets are closely watching today’s ADP private employment report for July, after June’s surprising -33K drop. Expectations suggest a rebound toward 77K, which could reshape forecasts ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its initial Q2 GDP figures, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pointing to 2.9% growth. Any data surprises may trigger volatility in the Dollar Index ahead of tonight’s Federal Reserve decision.
Fed Decision Takes Center Stage
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the 4.25–4.50% range for the fifth consecutive meeting. However, market focus is shifting toward the tone of the FOMC statement and Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference, searching for clues about a potential rate cut in September. A hawkish tone could boost yields and the dollar, while a more cautious or dovish stance might weigh on the greenback and lift gold and equities. Traders are bracing for sharp moves across dollar pairs immediately after the release.
Tech Earnings & Oil Inventories Complete the Picture
On a parallel front, tech giants Microsoft and Meta are set to release their quarterly earnings after the market close, carrying significant weight for risk sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel a rally in stocks and reduce safe-haven demand for the dollar, while disappointing results may drive a risk-off mood and support the dollar. Later today, the EIA will publish weekly oil inventory data, which could impact commodity currencies and indirectly affect the Dollar Index through shifts in market sentiment. Negative surprises from tech or oil could increase hedging flows and strengthen the greenback.
