Oil prices rise with the expectation of new sanctions on Russia
Oil markets witnessed a rise on Monday, July 14, 2025, as Brent crude rose by more than 1% to reach 70.50 dollars per barrel, while WTI crude exceeded the level of 68.00 dollars per barrel.
This rise was driven by expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, with the market awaiting an important statement from US President Donald Trump on the Ukrainian crisis.
The driving factors for the rise were:
- Expectations of Western sanctions
United States: Trump announced his intention to issue an important statement on Russia, expressing his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine.
EU: EU envoys are set to agree on the eighteenth package of sanctions against Russia, which will include lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil, which could affect global supplies.
- Geopolitical tensions
Trump has pledged to send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, amid an escalation of Russian bombing of urban areas.
A bipartisan US bill aimed at imposing additional sanctions on Russia has also gained momentum in Congress.
Gain-curbing factors:
- Increasing Saudi production
Saudi Arabia exceeded its agreed quota within the OPEC alliance by 430 thousand barrels per day in June, with its production reaching 9.8 million barrels per day compared to the target of 9.4 million barrels.
However, the Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed its commitment to the agreed quotas, noting that the marketed production amounted to 9.4 million barrels per day.
- Global trade concerns
Trump's statements about imposing new tariffs on the European Union and Mexico have raised fears of escalating trade disputes, which could affect global oil demand.
Market forecasts
Analysts expect volatility to continue as geopolitical tensions escalate.
Markets may get clearer indicators with the release of US inflation data and the results of trade talks.
Forecasts suggest that the oil market may be tighter than it seems, with demand rising during the summer season.
