Gold prices fall ahead of non-farm payrolls data
Gold prices fluctuated slightly downward on Friday, affected by adjustments to commodity indices and the rise of the US dollar, while investors eagerly await the release of US non-farm payrolls data, which may determine the market's next direction.
Factors affecting gold performance today
Gold prices are currently under multiple pressures, with the spot price of gold falling 0.6% to $4,453 per ounce, despite later rising to $4,475 per ounce and being poised to achieve weekly gains of more than 3%.
The main factors that led to this decline include:
- The strength of the US dollar ahead of the release of important economic data.
- Profit-taking after the gains made in recent days.
- Adjustments to commodity weights in the annual Bloomberg index.
Anticipation of US labor market data
The market is awaiting non-farm payroll data due later today, with economists expecting the addition of around 60,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5%.
This data is an important indicator of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which directly affects non-yielding assets such as gold.
Future outlook for gold prices
Pressure on gold prices is expected to continue over the next few days as the annual rebalancing of commodity indices continues. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive.
Here we review the most notable forecasts from investment banks for 2026
- HSBC expects gold prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce during the first half of 2026.
- JP Morgan expects strong demand from central banks and individual investors to continue to support gold prices throughout 2026.
- Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to continue rising in 2026, reaching $4,900 per ounce by the end of next year, supported by increased demand from central banks and individuals, as well as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Bank of America stated that expectations of increased gains or diversification of investment portfolios are driving gold purchases, with the yellow metal receiving additional support from concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve, as well as disputes over tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions boosting gold's gains.
- Morgan Stanley expects strong demand for gold from individuals to continue over the next year, supporting prices.
Factors supporting the future rise of gold
- Increased global geopolitical risks. -
- Rising global debt levels.
- A low interest rate environment that supports non-income-generating assets.
- Economic uncertainty that increases demand for safe havens.
