Market expectations are moving towards Powell's statements amid cautious optimism about gold
Crucial economic events that will last for three days begin today, as investors ' eyes are turning globally towards Jackson Hole, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements will be on Friday, which the market is eagerly awaiting in search of clear signals about the directions of the US central bank's monetary policy.
Traders currently estimate the probability of a rate cut in September at about 85%, although the minutes of the last Fed meeting revealed that policymakers continue to be concerned about inflation levels and labor market indicators.
Geopolitical concerns and their impact on the economy
On the geopolitical front, Russia warned that any attempt to address security issues related to Ukraine without its participation is a dead end, which exacerbates international tensions and affects investor confidence.
Gold is currently stable and future forecasts are bullish
Gold has maintained a sideways movement within a narrow range over the past months due to the seasonal slump in demand from central banks and institutions, but it has maintained its overall stability.
Goldman Sachs forecasts highlight a strong upward trend for the precious metal, targeting the level of 4000 dollars per ounce by mid-2026.
The bank believes that this estimate is due to several factors, most notably:
- Strong demand from central banks globally.
- Flows of exchange-traded investment funds.
- Expectations of easing the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
- The risk of an economic recession in the United States will increase by 30% over the next 12 months.
Goldman Sachs added that any possible peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia may cause a short-term wave of selling of the metal by about 3% as a result of speculators discharging their positions, but such an event will not change the fundamental upward trend of gold in the long term.
It seems that gold is preparing for a new stage of ascent, supported by strong fundamental factors, despite any political or economic fluctuations that may appear in the short term.
