Dollar stable despite rising interest rate cut bets

What are the main events of the day and market forecasts.

The US Consumer Price Index report was in line with expectations on Wednesday after rising by 0.3% in November, the largest gain since last April after rising by 0.2% for four consecutive months.

The markets now see a 98.6% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on December 17-18, compared to 78% a week ago.

The US producer price index will be released later on Thursday, which may strengthen these bets.

The US dollar traded in a narrow range on Thursday with a tendency to declines even as investors increased their bets that the Fed will cut interest rates next week, although expectations indicate that the Fed's interest rate path after December is less certain given that the core consumer price index remains high for several months in a row.

Which may make it more likely that the US dollar will remain in demand while concerns about the cessation of inflation support the current market pricing for a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee next year.

Markets are also pondering how the tariff and tax-cutting policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump, which are expected to be inflationary, may affect the Fed's forecasts.

The rise in US Treasury bond yields also provided support to the US dollar.

USDJPY

The Japanese yen is fluctuating obliquely to the downside as the dollar-yen pair rose for the fourth day in a row, and there were some reports that the Bank of Japan may abandon raising interest rates next week, as Reuters reported on Thursday that the Bank of Japan tends to keep interest rates steady, spending more time scrutinizing external risks and indicators on wage expectations next year.

USDCNH

Elsewhere in Asia, traders awaited any news from China's closed-door Central Economic Work Conference this week.

A Reuters report that China was considering allowing a weaker currency next year put the yuan on the defensive.

The yuan was last trading at around 7.2673 against the dollar, up by about 0.18% in foreign transactions.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar pair rose 0.8% today, moving further away from the more than one-year low achieved on Wednesday.

After the Australian employment data exceeded expectations, suggesting that the labor market is more flexible than many expected.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar pair also rose after hitting its lowest level since November in the previous session.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair rose by 0.10% ahead of the ECB's monetary policy meeting released on Thursday, where it is widely expected to provide a quarter basis point cut, the market's focus will be on any hints about the expectations of the central bank's interest rate path.

USDCHF

The Swiss franc has stabilized against the US dollar, as the markets weigh the likelihood of a half-point interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank on Thursday.

In the end, we have important data today, so please be careful during our trading.