Venezuelan Oil Between American Ambition and a Difficult Reality

Venezuelan oil represents one of the greatest paradoxes in global energy markets. While the country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, its ability to benefit from this wealth remains extremely limited. This contradiction has brought the issue back into focus as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to reposition Venezuelan oil within America’s broader energy security strategy. In theory, the idea is appealing: massive reserves located close to the United States, with the potential to ease pressure on global energy supplies. In practice, however, the situation is far more complex. Venezuelan crude is predominantly heavy oil, difficult and costly to extract and refine. Years of sanctions, underinvestment, and operational neglect have deeply weakened the sector, making rapid gains more a political aspiration than an economically viable short-term plan.

The Production Dilemma: Why Reserves Do Not Translate Into Output

The core challenge facing Venezuela is not the size of its oil reserves, but its capacity to turn those reserves into sustainable production. Aging infrastructure, deteriorating fields, and outdated refining facilities require massive capital investment and technical expertise. Heavy crude production demands specialized technology, long development timelines, and stable operating conditions. As a result, any meaningful increase in output would take years rather than months. International oil companies, particularly from the United States, remain cautious, not only because of technical hurdles, but also due to legal uncertainty and weak institutional guarantees. Without a stable framework that protects long-term investments, Venezuela’s oil output is likely to remain well below its theoretical potential.

Geopolitics Overshadows Economics

Venezuelan oil cannot be separated from the broader geopolitical landscape. Any U.S. move in this direction is widely seen as an attempt to reshape influence in Latin America, rather than a purely commercial decision. Competing global powers already have entrenched interests in Venezuela’s energy sector, complicating Washington’s efforts to move quickly or decisively. Moreover, using oil as a geopolitical tool risks triggering counter-reactions that could destabilize markets rather than stabilize them. In this context, Trump’s ambitions face a delicate balance between potential strategic gains and significant political risks. The oil is there, but turning it into a reliable and effective instrument of policy will be a long and uncertain journey