Fiery Analysis of the US Dollar Index
The recent sharp decline in the US Dollar Index is primarily due to the US administration's announcement of new tariffs on imports from some countries (especially China). This decision has raised investor concerns about:
1. A decline in global trade and a potential global economic recession.
2. Retaliatory responses from trading partners that could weaken US exports.
3. The possibility of interest rates being cut or kept unchanged for a longer period to support growth, which would put pressure on the dollar.
Second: Technical Outlook (from the attached chart)
Support and Resistance:
• Important Current Support: 99.160 (currently being tested).
• Next Strongest Support:
96.824 (marked in red), which is the last hope for bulls.
• Nearest Resistance:
102.225, a break above which would confirm any real upward reversal.
RSI Indicator
• Currently at 31.42, i.e., within the oversold zone.
• There is a potential positive divergence on the RSI (the price is falling while the indicator is rising) → an early sign of a possible rebound.
Expected Scenarios:
1. Bullish Scenario (currently preferred in the short term):
• As long as the price maintains the 99.160 level and does not close clearly below it.
• First upside target: 102.225.
• A break of this level opens the way towards 104.500.
2. Bearish Scenario:
• If 99.160 is broken with at least a 4-hour candle.
• The target will be 96.824 (which is a key support level that should be closely monitored, as a break of it would mean further weakness in the dollar).
Conclusion:
• The dollar is under pressure due to hawkish trade policies, and their impact is clearly affecting market sentiment.
• Technically: There are signs of a rebound from strong support areas, but confirmation of the reversal requires a break of 102.225.
