Goldman Sachs says that the unrest in the Red Sea has led to a larger-than-expected drawdown in OECD stocks, as the bank expects a slight rise in the summer of 2024 to the levels of USD 87 per barrel for Brent crude oil, while their previous forecasts were centered at levels against USD 85.
The bank also says that a drop below 70 dollars will most likely require much weaker demand and a shift in Saudi strategy.
Oil demand is expected to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024, with a downgrade in China due to its weak real-time forecasts but upgrades in India and the United States.
OPEC is expected to extend the cuts until the second quarter of 2024, and to phase out and partially phase out the latest package starting from the third quarter of 2024.
They say that the range of movements for Brent is between 70 and 90 dollars, despite the escalation in the Red Sea.
