Gold Price Forecast for Today, October 29, 2026, Following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Decision
Gold prices fell on Thursday as investors assessed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, as attention turns to U.S. personal consumption expenditures data, which is considered a key indicator for measuring inflation and determining the future course of monetary policy.
The price of gold fell today by approximately 1% to $4,023 per ounce and is currently trading around $4,030 per ounce we expect it to rise as we await today’s PCE data.
The decline came after gold gave back some of its recent gains, amid ongoing pressure from expectations regarding U.S. interest rates, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking, despite U.S. Treasury yields falling from their previous highs—factors that could provide support for the precious metal.
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Divergent Views Among Members
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged within a range of 3.75% to 4.00% during its meeting on Wednesday, in a decision that was in line with expectations, but revealed a divergence of views among Monetary Policy Committee members regarding the next move.
Ten members voted to keep interest rates steady, while two members—Lisa Cook and Beth Hamack—favored raising them by 25 basis points, according to a statement released by the U.S. central bank.
Investors are closely monitoring these divisions, as they may reflect differing assessments of inflation risks and the path of monetary policy in the coming period, especially as pressures linked to rising energy prices persist.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s “FedWatch” tool, markets are pricing in an approximately 83% probability of an interest rate hike in December.
U.S. Inflation Data Will Determine Gold’s Direction
Markets are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data, which receives special attention from the Federal Reserve as one of the key measures for assessing inflation trends.
Inflation data is likely to influence investors’ expectations regarding interest rates, as higher readings could reinforce the likelihood of a prolonged period of tight monetary policy, which could put pressure on gold prices, while lower-than-expected readings could give the precious metal a chance to recoup some of its gains.
Rise in China’s Gold Imports Supports Global Demand
Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose by more than 28% in September compared to August, reaching a five-month high.
This increase reflects improved gold flows into the Chinese market, which is considered a key market in determining global demand for the precious metal.
Continued Chinese demand could provide support for gold prices, especially if it coincides with increased investor interest in safe-haven assets.
Gold Price Forecasts for the Coming Period
Near-term gold price forecasts depend on the results of U.S. personal consumption expenditures data and the extent to which they influence interest rate expectations during upcoming Federal Reserve meetings.
If inflation data comes in higher than expected, pressure on gold may increase as the likelihood of continued tight monetary policy rises, along with the potential for the U.S. dollar to strengthen.
If, on the other hand, the data shows a slowdown in inflation, expectations for interest rate hikes may recede, which could give gold an opportunity to recover—especially if this coincides with a decline in the dollar and U.S. bond yields.
At the same time, Chinese demand and geopolitical tensions remain factors that could limit the precious metal’s losses, making gold’s movements in the coming period dependent on the balance between inflation risks, U.S. interest rate expectations, and demand for safe-haven assets.
