What are the main events that will be released today?
During the trading of the European period, we will have a few weak indicators, which for the most part will not affect significantly, the focus today will be on the US non-farm payrolls report, and also Canadian employment data that are released at the same time, and then we conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Report.
Canadian employment report:
The Canadian employment report is expected to show the addition of 25 thousand jobs in January against 90.9 thousand jobs in December and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% against 6.7% previously.
Data from Canada indicate a gradual improvement after aggressive interest rate cuts, which would have strongly supported the Canadian currency if not for Trump's threats of tariffs, and then postponed them for a month.
US non-farm payrolls report:
With the easing of tariff fears, the focus turns again to US data, as we are waiting for the non-farm payrolls report in the US today and forecasts indicate that 170 thousand jobs will be added in January versus 256 thousand jobs in December and that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.1%.
The average hourly wage on an annual basis is expected to be 3.8% versus 3.9% previously, while the figure on a monthly basis is expected to be 0.3% versus 0.3% previously.
The latest report was released much stronger than expected and led to another tight re-pricing of interest rate forecasts, the Fed is mainly focused on inflation now that the labor market remains strong, expectations so far point to the release of another strong US jobs report.
On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant expressed support for the strong dollar and stressed that there are no plans to change the strategy of issuing government debt.
He also made it clear that President Trump is not pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates, despite his comments at the Davos summit last month.
The markets are also currently pricing in two 25 basis point US interest rate cuts this year.
