The most important statements of Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve Governor, were the following:
- The US Federal Reserve is committed to achieving the goals of optimal exploitation of the labor market and price stability.
- The labor market remains strong, the target fell close to the target.
- Inflation is still a bit high.
- The board voted to slow down the pace of the round of balance sheet restructuring.
- Although some inflation indicators have risen and tariffs are to blame, most of them remain stable, and uncertainty remains high.
- The Fed sees no need to rush, waiting for better clarity.
- It will be very difficult to determine the amount of inflation caused by tariffs and to separate unrelated inflation.
- I expect increases in inflation expectations in the short term.
- There may be some delay in the progress of inflation, as we are closely monitoring indicators of weakness in real data.
- Forecasts indicate that the US interest rate may stabilize by the end of this year at 3.9%, but this is just a forecast.
- Inflation is still expected to reach 2% in 2027, with high uncertainty, and most participants stuck to the forecasts of the previous points chart.
- Layoffs are still low so people don't lose their jobs, but if they lose their jobs, it will take them longer to find a new one, the situation is generally balanced.
- The high commodity price inflation readings deserve careful follow-up and were surprising, perhaps the imposition of tariffs was the reason.
- I am not currently having difficulty balancing mandates, the possibility of recession is always there, but I do not expect this to happen in 12 months.
- Inflation of Housing Services is going well, and is trending downward, as this category is not related to customs duties
- The economy is fairly good, but people are still not satisfied with the price level, the forecasts have not changed significantly amid the atmosphere of high uncertainty
- Despite some deterioration in the polls, the actual economy does not show the same deterioration, so let's wait and see.
- Tariffs tend to lower growth and raise inflation, but long-term inflation expectations do not change.
- At some point, the flow of liquidity on the balance sheet will stop, I would very much like to withdraw mortgage-backed bonds from the balance sheet.
- Preliminary data show higher risks, but they do not show them in the actual data.
- I don't expect anything like a reboot of the Seventies inflation, there are a bunch of possible consequences due to tariffs and retaliatory measures.
- Participants are strongly in favor of slowing down, not stopping, the flow of the balance sheet.
