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Statements by Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank
- The uncertainty is still high.
- We have to be very careful.
- Inflation will have its ups and downs this year.
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Statements by Bostjan Vasili, member of the European Central Bank
- We can lower interest rates even more if things go as expected
- We need more data to confirm the course of inflation.
- Be careful not to declare victory too early.
- The labor market is very important for the next steps.
- The labor market remains tight, causing wage pressure.
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Statements by Philip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank
- Inflation of services is still necessary.
- You need to spend some time to assess inflation.
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Statements by European Central Bank member Madis Muller
- We can cut further if the basic forecasts continue.
- You should be patient with further reductions in interest rates.
- There is a risk of underestimating the stability of inflation.
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Statements by Mario Centeno, member of the European Central Bank
- With confidence building, the ECB can look at every decision-making meeting.
- There is confidence that inflation will reach the 2% target next year.
- Our basic forecasts have proved to be very strong.
- We must be careful about prices.
- We are still undecided about the growth assessment.
- Monetary policy should help to achieve economic recovery.
The essence of the matter is that they would like to lower interest rates even moreand they are ready to cut interest, but they are not confident enough to pull the trigger in July.
So they are preparing for a possible move in September, if inflation and economic developments correspond accordingly in the next two months.
September is still the most likely month for a rate cut, but it is also not a given at this stage, amid all these remarks.
The probability of a move in September is about 81%, while traders expect a 43 basis point cut in interest rates by the end of the year.
