Natural Gas Rises for the Fifth Consecutive Day
U.S. natural gas futures prices rise to a 7-week high—what are the reasons behind this rise?
U.S. natural gas futures prices saw a sharp rise during Tuesday’s trading for the fifth consecutive day, hitting their highest levels in about seven weeks, amid expectations of increased energy demand coinciding with a severe heat wave hitting large parts of the United States, along with a decline in production in recent weeks.
Rise in Natural Gas Prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange
U.S. natural gas futures for June delivery rose by about 2.2% on the New York Mercantile Exchange, settling above $3 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)—the highest closing level since March 27, marking the second consecutive day of gains.
This rise comes amid expectations of increased electricity consumption in the coming period, particularly as temperatures rise and reliance on air conditioning increases across the United States.
Heat Wave Boosts Demand for Natural Gas
Analysts believe the main reason behind the rise in natural gas prices is the forecast of warmer-than-usual weather in the coming days, as meteorological data indicates that the heat waves will continue until early June.
The U.S. capital, Washington, D.C., is expected to see record temperatures over the next two days, after reaching 99 degrees Fahrenheit (37.2 degrees Celsius) on Monday.
On Tuesday, the temperature is expected to reach 101 degrees Fahrenheit, and on Wednesday, it is expected to reach 97 degrees Fahrenheit.
For context, the highest temperature recorded in Washington in mid-May was 96 degrees Fahrenheit (in 1877, 1997, and 1996). These levels are significantly higher than the typical average temperatures for this time of year, which are only around 77 degrees Fahrenheit, reinforcing expectations of higher electricity consumption and, consequently, increased demand for natural gas used in power generation.
Decline in U.S. Gas Production Supports Prices
In addition to weather factors, the decline in natural gas production in the United States has contributed to supporting prices, as average daily production fell to 109.5 billion cubic feet during the current month of May, compared to approximately 109.8 billion cubic feet per day during last April.
The decline in supply, coupled with expected increases in demand, is creating strong price support in U.S. markets.
Resumption of U.S. Gas Exports to China
On the global trade front, reports indicate that three liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are expected to arrive in China in June, coming directly from the United States.
This move marks a significant development following the suspension of direct shipments between the two countries since February 2025, due to trade tensions between Washington and Beijing during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term.
Observers believe that the resumption of LNG flows to China could support global demand for U.S. gas in the coming period, adding further positive momentum to prices.
From this, we can identify the main reasons behind the rise in natural gas prices:
1- Forecasts of warmer weather and increased demand for air conditioning
2- A record-breaking heat wave hitting Washington, D.C.
3- Declining domestic production
4- An expected increase in gas demand
Will natural gas prices continue to rise?
The movement of natural gas prices in the coming period depends on several key factors, most notably the continuation of heat waves across the United States, as well as domestic production levels and the volume of liquefied natural gas exports.
If the hot weather forecast persists alongside declining production, natural gas prices may continue to rise in the coming weeks, especially as energy demand increases during the summer season.
