Oil prices decline as Venezuela resumes exports and US inventories rise amid anticipation of developments in Iran

Oil prices declined during trading on Wednesday after four consecutive days of gains, affected by the resumption of Venezuelan oil exports and rising crude oil and petroleum product inventories in the United States.

despite continuing concerns about the possibility of Iranian supply disruptions as a result of escalating political unrest, which points to the possibility of a significant rebound.

Oil prices today

Brent crude fell to around $64.30 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell to around $60.30 per barrel, as investors took profits after a brief rally.

Rising US inventories put pressure on prices

US inventory data had a direct impact on oil market movements, with the American Petroleum Institute announcing that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 5.23 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by about 8.23 million barrels, and oil product inventories rose by 4.34 million barrels compared to the previous week.

This unexpected rise in stocks provided traders with a strong justification for taking profits, especially as markets await data from the US Energy Information Administration, which is due to be released later today.

A Reuters poll had indicated expectations of a decline in crude oil inventories, compared to expectations of an increase in gasoline and oil derivative inventories.

Venezuela is gradually returning to the export market

On the supply side, the resumption of oil exports from Venezuela has put pressure on prices, as Caracas has begun to backtrack on the production cuts it imposed under US sanctions, coinciding with the return of crude oil shipments to global markets.

According to market sources, two giant tankers left Venezuelan waters carrying about 1.8 million barrels of crude oil each, in what is likely to be the first shipment of a 50 million barrel supply agreement between Venezuela and the US, with the aim of resuming exports following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Iran brings geopolitical concerns back to the forefront

Meanwhile, tensions in Iran continue to cast a shadow over the oil market, with escalating protests raising fears of a possible supply disruption from OPEC's fourth-largest oil producer.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday called on Iranians to continue protesting, saying that help was "on the way" without providing further details, which reinforced the geopolitical risk premium in the markets.

Oil price forecasts for the coming period

Citi analysts noted that the unrest in Iran could contribute to a tightening of global oil market balances in the near term, either through potential supply losses or through a rise in geopolitical risk premiums, raising their forecast for Brent crude prices over the next three months to $70 per barrel.

However, analysts noted that the protests have not yet spread to Iran's main oil-producing regions, limiting their direct impact on actual supplies.

They emphasized that the current risks are more focused on political and logistical aspects, rather than direct disruptions to production or exports, which has kept their impact on Iranian oil flows under control so far.