Oil prices fall in limited trading
Global oil markets witnessed some declines on Wednesday , as prices fell marginally to settle near their lowest levels in two months, influenced by indicators of slowing demand and anticipation of the upcoming US-Russian talks.
The main price movement
Brent crude oil fell to trade lows of USD 66.00 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell by 0.4% to trade lows of USD 63.00 per barrel.
Factors affecting the market
1. inventory data and demand forecasts
The American Petroleum Institute report revealed that US crude inventories rose by 1.52 million barrels last week, with a slight decrease in gasoline inventories, and these data indicate that the end of the summer driving season (which usually runs from the end of May to early September) is approaching, which means an expected decline in fuel demand.
The US Energy Information Administration also raised its forecast for the global oil surplus for this year to 1.7 million barrels per day.
2-economic and political prospects
- The Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for oil prices in 2026 by 12%, predicting an average price of 51.43 dollars for Brent and 47.77 dollars for West Texas crude.
- Markets are looking forward to next Friday's meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
- The deadline set by Trump (August 8) failed to bring about a change in Russia's policies, without imposing new sanctions on Russian oil purchases.
Market analysis and future forecasts
Oil investors are living in a wait-and-see situation, according to an analysis by ING Bank, as the Trump-Putin meeting may remove some of the sanctions risks surrounding the market.
However, analysts doubt the possibility of a major breakthrough that could change the dynamics of Russian oil supplies.
On the other hand, India, the second largest buyer of Russian oil, continues to import approximately 1.8 million barrels per day from Russia, benefiting from reduced prices despite increasing US pressure.
The United States has imposed additional tariffs of 25% on India, bringing the total duties to 50%, in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil.
