Trade escalation and a new American threat Trade relations between the United States and the European Union are facing a new crisis, after former US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50% on some European imports, unless a trade agreement is reached before July 9, 2025. These possible tariffs come at a sensitive time when markets are experiencing uncertainty, and may directly affect the European economy, the euro exchange rate, and confidence in transatlantic trade stability. A split within the European Union So far, the ongoing negotiations between the two sides have not succeeded in reaching a preliminary agreement, which has prompted some European countries to call for a quick settlement (such as Germany), while others, such as France, believe that making concessions may open the door to even greater escalation in the future. This political division complicates the chances of reaching a unified solution before the deadline, increasing pressure on the European Commission amid fears of internal economic turmoil. Potential economic impact According to reports from the Federation of Italian industries, the imposition of tariffs of only 10% could cost Italy alone losses of up to 20 billion euros in exports and the loss of more than 118,000 jobs. Higher fees, such as 25% or 50%, are not mentioned in the report, but their upward impact can be roughly estimated, as shown in the following figure: 
Keep an eye on the markets before July 9 As the deadline approaches, investors are in a state of suspense, while the markets are waiting for a final decision from Washington and Brussels. Any failure of the agreement could lead to a significant escalation of trade tensions, widely affecting monetary and fiscal policies in Europe and the United States. If an agreement is reached, the parties may avoid a new crisis that would have added additional pressure on the global economy.
