A brief summary of the RBNZ forecasts from ANZ Bank wasthe following:  

- ANZ bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% at the August 14 meeting, but indicates a possible cut later this year.

- ANZ bank expects an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand next November.

- Recent data indicate a slowdown in the economy and strong progress in reducing inflation.

- ANZ Bank puts the odds of 10-15% on the RBNZ turning to the easing bias at this meeting.

- Inflation remains high at 5.4% yoy against the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's forecast of 4.1%.

- Labor market data in the second quarter are stronger than the RBNZ forecasts in general.

- The markets expect reductions of 89 basis points by November 2024 and 222 basis points by November 2025.

- ANZ Bank warns of a possible disappointment in the market if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds steady.

The bottom line is that the RBNZ is likely to wait for more evidence before easing policy, however, the markets seem overly lenient before the meeting.