The latest results of a Reuters poll of analysts for the period were released this week.
- 21 out of 34 economists, or 62%, expect the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rates in April.
- 12 out of 34 economists, or 35%, expect this step to happen in March, i.e. next week.
- Similarly, 62% expect the Bank of Japan to cancel the YCC in April, while 31% say it will happen in March.
I think the prospects to some extent reflect the prevailing market sentiment, especially after Ueda's more cautious statements this week.
It may be that waiting until April can be considered the safest approach, since the Bank of Japan will have more assurances about the wage talks and at least another month of economic data.
However, we all know that the results of the wage negotiations in the spring will be enough to be a platform for them to stand on to get out of the negative interest and they have already had a year to prepare for this next step, so why not do it now
