Australian-Canadian Pair Analysis

AUD/CAD On the fundamental sidethe

Australian dollar saw a period of calm on Wednesday after two sessions of gains, as Japanese bond selling contributed to increased investor anxiety and pushed the Australian dollar to an 18-month high against the yen.

Sentiment was also boosted by strong demand for the government's new A$15 billion treasury bonds.

We await the release of the Australian jobs report for December early Thursday morning.

Forecasts point to a rebound in employment of 30,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly to 4.4% from 4.3%, which is fully in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia's expectations.

If the results are significantly weaker than expected, it will reduce the likelihood of an interest rate hike in the near term, but everything depends on the inflation figures for the last quarter of the year, which will be released next week.

Markets currently indicate a 30% probability of a quarter-point hike in the base rate of 3.6%. On the other side of the Canadian economy, we await Friday's Canadian retail sales data, with expectations higher than forecasts.

AUD/CAD On the technical side

the Australian/Canadian pair rose on Wednesday for the third consecutive day, as the pair attempts to complete the Crab harmonic pattern on the four-hour chart under the influence of negative divergence on the MACD indicator.

The pair is also trading within an upward price channel on the hourly chart, reaching almost its upper limit and now attempting to retreat.

We can wait for the harmonic pattern to complete near the 0.9360/70 levels, from which we can start selling the pair to target the 0.9290 and then 0.9250 levels.

This scenario will fail if the 0.9400 levels are broken to the upside.