Crude Oil Price Analysis
Oil on the Fundamental Side
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell by about 2% to a low of $93 a barrel on Tuesday, after rising more than 4% in the previous session, as investors assessed the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Iranian negotiations and the future of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Concerns about continued disruptions to energy flows from the Arabian Gulf continued to fuel market volatility.
Prices had risen on Monday following reports that Iran had suspended talks with Washington in response to Israeli military operations in Lebanon, before retreating after President Donald Trump stated that negotiations were still ongoing.
Trump also said that a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as next week, although several issues remain unresolved.
Conflicting messages from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the situation in Lebanon have added to the uncertainty, while Lebanese officials have said that further ceasefire discussions are scheduled for this week.
Oil Technical Analysis
Oil prices rebounded from the $97 per barrel level, as mentioned in our weekly analysis video here.
We still anticipate further declines after reaching the $97 resistance level and approaching a retest of the lower boundary of the broken symmetrical triangle. The current targets are $85 and then $80 per barrel.
Any renewed rise towards the $99-$100 range would present another opportunity to enter a sell position on crude oil.
