Crude oil price outlook

Oil at the basic level

Oil prices decline, but rising geopolitical tensions threaten supplies

Oil prices declined despite increased supply risks due to escalating protests in Iran and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude exports.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $58.35 a barrel, while Brent crude fell to $62.60 a barrel.

President Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on Tuesday on options for responding to the protests in Iran, including sanctions, cyber weapons, and military strikes.

Reports indicate that the unrest has claimed hundreds of lives and that US President Donald Trump is considering options for intervention, raising concerns about the impact on oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran exports nearly 2 million barrels per day and is OPEC's fourth-largest oil producer, making any escalation a real threat to global supplies.

Investors are also closely monitoring supply risks in Russia amid Ukraine's attacks on energy infrastructure in the region and the possibility of tougher US sanctions.

Oil on a technical level

Crude oil (WTI) broke through the daily downward price channel levels during last week's trading, and oil managed to close above it by more than a daily candle.

Any corrective attempts near a retest of this channel are expected to be another opportunity to reposition purchases, under the influence of the positive divergence of the MACD indicator with the price.

We are targeting levels of $60, then $61.50, and finally $65 per barrel.

This scenario will fail if the price channel breaks down again and closes at least one daily candle below it.