Analyzing Crude Oil Prices

Brent Crude on a fundamental level

Oil prices fell on Monday, giving up last week's gains, as loading operations resumed at Russia's main export hub Novorossiysk, after a two-day halt at the Black Sea port damaged by the Ukrainian offensive.

Brent crude is now trading near $63.63 per barrel.

The Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on Sunday, however, Ukraine's escalation of attacks on Russian oil infrastructure remains a concern for further potential disruptions.

Investors are trying to assess how the Ukraine attacks will affect Russia's crude oil exports in the long term, while at the same time seeking to take profits after last Friday's rally in oil prices.

But overall, there is still a perception of oversupply as a result of OPEC+ production increases.

Investors are also watching the impact of Western sanctions on Russian supplies and trade flows. The U.S. imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after Nov. 21 to push Moscow toward peace talks over Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are working on legislation to impose sanctions on any country that does business with Russia, and said Iran could be added to that list.

Brent crude on a technical level

Crude prices are trading within a bearish price channel on the four-hour frame.

It is possible to wait for a breakout of this price channel, with crude currently trading within the right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder pattern.

A breakout of the neckline could push Brent crude to target the downtrend levels as an initial target near $66.50 per barrel, which if broken and closed above a daily candle, we could target the resistance levels of $69.30 per barrel as a final target.

This scenario fails if the neckline breaks back down and stabilizes below.