Australian Pound Pair Movement Forecast

GBP/AUD at the fundamental level

The Australian pound fell on Tuesday for the second day in a row, especially with the Australian currency rising against most currencies, as the Australian and New Zealand currencies are considered indicators of global risks, especially as commodity prices, such as gold, silver and copper, reach record highs amid low liquidity.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest monetary policy meeting showed that board members discussed whether an interest rate hike next year is necessary to rein in inflation.

Uncertainty over whether or not financial conditions are constrained has increased.

The RBA has emphasized that in order to hold rates steady next year, it needs to make sure that financial conditions are constrained and that most of the rise in inflation is temporary, making the fourth-quarter inflation figures, due out in late January.

all the more important. Most economists expect the RBA to raise interest rates by the first RBA meeting in February.

Price swaps currently indicate only a 27% chance of a February rate hike by the RBA, but the move is expected to be fully priced in by June next year.

There is a 56% chance of a further hike by the end of 2026.

On the other side of the pond, the pound has weakened against the Aussie dollar, but has gained 1% against the US dollar since the Bank of England cut interest rates last week, a decision that was widely expected.

However, policymakers have also hinted that the likelihood of further cuts remains high.

GBP/AUD at the fundamental level

The AUD/GBP pair is trading above the levels of the uptrend on the four-hour frame, trying to fulfill the harmonic patterns shown on the attached chart.

We are targeting 2.0120 as an initial target and 2.0030 as a final target.

Any corrective rally near 2.0200-2.0215 levels would be another good selling opportunity for the pair.

This scenario will fail if the 2.0300 levels are breached.