Analysis of the Canadian dollar pair and completion of the harmonic model

The Canadian dollar pair fell during the Asian trading period on Tuesday for the second day in a row, and for the seventh day in eight days of trading.

As we are waiting for inflation data from the Canadian economy today, the Canadian Consumer Price Index is expected to record a decline from 2.7% to 2.6% on an annual basis, while the monthly index is expected to record a decline from 0.5% to 0.3%, and the average CPI is also expected to record a decline from 2.9% to 2.8% on an annual basis.

The latest report showed that the core inflation measures fell within the target range of the Bank of Canada, which gave the central bank the green light to provide the first interest rate cut, and the market expects a 65% chance to cut interest rates again next July.

On the other side of the US economy, US consumer confidence for June, the US Consumer Confidence Index is expected to come in at 100 against 102 previously, as the latest report showed an improvement in confidence after three consecutive months of decline.

 

Technically: the Canadian dollar pair is trading near the lower boundary of the descending price channel, where the pair also completed the harmonic Gartley pattern on the four-hour frame and the pair is now trading near the levels of uptrends and also strong support levels that could push the pair higher.

We expect to first reach the upper limit of the descending price channel as an initial target, then the levels of 1.3730 and finally at the levels of 1.3780.

This scenario fails if the 1.3585 levels break down.