Crude oil and the forecast of its movements in the coming period

On the economic side:

Crude oil prices have fallen as markets prepare for possible tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Canada and Mexico.

However, the National Bank of Canada said in a note on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico is unlikely to apply to energy exports.

The bank said that as investors assess risks in the energy sector amid the threat of tariffs, there is still uncertainty as to whether the impact will continue given the global nature and efficiency of the crude oil market.

The bank noted that given Trump's desire to lower energy prices, restricting supply from the largest source of heavy crude seems counter-intuitive. The National Bank said that major US refineries are dependent on Canadian supply, and targeting this supply is likely to harm consumers by raising gasoline prices and contributing to inflationary pressures.

Markets are also awaiting a meeting of the organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers on February 3 where members are scheduled to discuss Trump's efforts to boost US oil production.

On the technical side:

Crude oil is trading inside a falling price channel on the four-hour frame, as it is considered the best areas to return to the fall again if we test the upper limit of this channel approximately at the levels of 72.80 to 73.00 dollars per barrel, from which we target the lower limit of the channel near the levels of 70.50 dollars per barrel.

As for the case when the channel levels break higher under the influence of the positive divergence of the MACD index, expectations point to a further rise towards the levels of 74.00 and then 76.00 dollars per barrel.